Markets

Emerging Markets Pop off US Jobs Data, May not Last


EM ended the week on a firm note after the US jobs shocker.  While we view the weak reading as a fluke, shifting market perceptions of Fed tightening risk should keep EM bid near-term.  However, we think the July FOMC meeting is still very much alive.  That and the upcoming Brexit vote are potential pitfalls for EM in the coming weeks.

The Lao Garment Industry Risks Being Left Behind


The Lao garment industry has been on the decline. The value of exports increased from US$87 million in 1995 to a peak of US$219 million in 2011, before gradually falling to US$174 million in 2015. The share of garments in total exports also declined from an average of 36 percent during 2001–2005, to only 8 percent during 2011–2015.

Do Emerging Markets Have You Sea-Sick?


In the past year, investors have seen emerging markets thrive, plunge, re-emerge and re-decline. Despite the volatile short-term story, the fundamentals of the emerging market assets remain strong.

Last fall, the Wall Street Journal reported that rich nations were “losing emerging markets motor.” Reportedly, the woes of developing economies were ricocheting back to advanced ones and hurting their fragile recovery.

Cheers to Australia's GDP


It is hard to find any bad news in the latest quarterly GDP result. GDP growth of 1.1% for the March quarter (0.9% trend) puts annual growth just over 3%.

The Federal Budget and subsequent Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) forecast for 2.5% for the current fiscal year 2015-16 looks likely to be comfortably exceeded. The figures indicate that, for the moment at least, the economy is tracking at or above its potential.

South Africa's Land Reform Program is Failing


What is going wrong in South Africa’s land reform programme, and how can its failings be addressed?

In 22 years, land reform has barely altered the agrarian structure of South Africa, and has had only minor effects on rural livelihoods.

OBOR's Success and the Link to the Chinese Diaspora


A multitude of views have coloured the understanding of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) strategy. Some view OBOR through the lens of geopolitical competition and are wary of China’s rise. Yet, the OBOR vision has intrinsic value beyond fears of Chinese geopolitical ambitions. This is especially so in regards to people-to-people connections in which the Chinese diaspora are inexorably involved.

BRICS Need to Act Their Age


The rise of non-Western emerging powers like Brazil, Russia, India and China is a reality that has shaped South Africa’s foreign policy under President Jacob Zuma.

Foreign policy under Zuma has been characterised by his country’s growing closeness with these four countries. The leaders of these countries meet more often than they did in the past. This is the case in the context of their bilateral relationships as well as part of the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) grouping.

No Brexit Vote for You


decision by judges in the Supreme Court has finally put an end to the legal challenge of two British citizens claiming to be unfairly excluded from voting in the EU referendum. They were campaigning against the law , which disenfranchises people who have lived outside the UK for 15 years or more.